Can You Predict Your April Sales This Year? (I Think Not...)

Filed in archive Trends on February 8, 2009

Jack and Suzy Welch said this today:

To say times feel tough doesn't cover it. They feel unprecedented, even for the ones of us who managed through the recessions of 1973-75, '80-'82, and '90-'91. In each of those downturns, on any given February day, even as the ­economy sputtered, you could still predict your April sales to within a couple of percentage points. Today it's as if a blanket of fog has dropped over commerce; visibility is near zero.

Mr. & Mrs. Welch tried not to make the rest of their post quite so depressing, but they failed. They start the piece with the question "Is the economy beyond saving." Their answer: of course not. But after that one bright spot they go on to explain all that's wrong with the stimulus package. I didn't feel very edified...

The truth, though, is dark. And it's illustrated by this chart released Friday from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.